I sense some skepticism

A couple of days ago I wrote about so-called psychics and what I think is the reality behind the ones that seem genuine. I'd like to expand on that today.

As we grow up, we learn skills which we use throughout our lives. Some of them are obvious: language, manners (table and social), walking, running, jumping. And so on. But we also absorb skills subconsciously.

Sports. Baseball. You learn to throw a ball before you even know anything about the game. But there is so much more to throwing a ball than the simple mechanics of gripping the ball, set, arm extension, and follow through. How hard to throw it to go a certain distance and aiming for a moving target have to be learned. We start with stationary ones, don't we? Then we advance to moving ones so we can hit that baseman as he moves toward the bag to tag out the runner. Throwing a ball toward a person standing still seems simple (though it takes you a while to master it well enough). Throwing a ball to a moving person requires complex calculations translated to muscle movement. But we do it, some better than others. Some way better. Some never really get the hang of it.

Take the game of pocket billiards (pool). Striking the cue ball with just the right amount of force to propel it into the object ball in order to move that ball in a specific direction and speed to sink it is difficult enough. Now add to it the concept of positioning that cue ball as a result of that shot so you have another opportunity to sink another object ball. I can tell you how to strike the cue ball to make it move certain ways such as draw (backspin) or follow (add roll) and I can tell you how that might affect the object ball and how that can affect the object ball's path. You, however, will have to teach yourself just how to compensate, how hard to strike the cue ball, and how to take advantage of the physics involved. Physics that you may have no clue you are learning or why they work.

I play golf. Some of you may also. Did you ever consider just how many complex calculations you make when putting? Without touching the surface with anything other than your feet (inside shoes), you determine the speed needed to go a certain distance, you eyeball the contours your ball will traverse and determine how to take advantage of them, and your brain turns this into instructions to your muscles in order to execute the putt. (I would add “and then it misses by a mile and rolls way past the hole” but that goes without saying)

Most of the above is not actually taught, it is learned by the brain however. And the brain performs the calculations without you consciously being aware of it.

Apply all the above to what a “psychic” does. He absorbs information without realizing it, his brain uses that information to make a prediction or determine something about the person in front of him. It seems amazing, magical, but I suspect it is no more magical than playing baseball, pool, or golf.

Reading your palm, I can see that you're gullible

No politics today. Since I already waxed politico on Wednesday about the State of the Union speech, I won't do a second politically inspired (if you can call anything I write “inspired”) piece.

Instead I will remind you that I mentioned psychics the other day. I do not believe in psychics. I should clarify that. I do not believe people have supernatural powers to read the future, discern secrets of the past, read minds, or even bend spoons.

This puts me solidly on the side of one James Randi, otherwise known as The Amazing Randi, a magician and escape artist whose Million Dollar Challenge has yet to uncover a real psychic.

I do not consider all psychics frauds. A fraud is someone who pretends to be what he is not, like Bernie Madoff. Or Uri Geller. Some people who call themselves psychics are not frauds but they are not actually psychics either. They truly believe they have these supernatural powers.

If you follow this blog at all, you know I am atheist. This means more, to me, than not believing in gods or religion, it means not believing in anything supernatural. No ghosts, no spirits, no auras surrounding people's bodies revealing anything about them, no telekinesis, no mind-reading, no out of body experiences (AKA “astral flights”), or anything like that.

But I am intrigued by such people. The ones that believe they have powers, that is. The frauds are well aware they can't and merely perform tricks.

If anyone reads this post, I might get a few comments or emails telling me how wrong I am and possibly relating stories of some amazing feat or ability of someone they have seen or known. If you wish to believe, go ahead. So long as you don't pay them more than you can afford I see no harm in believing. But I would like to present my view on what the abilities are that they appear to have.

We know the brain is an amazing organ and we really do not understand how it works. On a rudimentary scale, we do. But not much more. I like to think of it as an organic computer attached to a number of sensors (ears, eyes, tongue/taste buds, nasal passages, and skin) which feed it data and which it absorbs and records. It is not magical, however, anymore than that computer you own is.

Think of what were called “Idiot Savants” at one time. The term is, rightly, seen as derogatory. These people are seemingly “idiots” but possess some ability way beyond what is perceived as their capabilities. Beyond, sometimes, a “normal” person's ability. Heck, we have all seen “Rain Man” by now and know what I am talking about here.

I place psychics in this category. Like the savant, the so-called psychics I speak of have no idea how they do what they seemingly do. What I think is going on, in my view, is that they collect data subconsciously, crunch it, and produce something which appears to be a supernatural feat.

Since we do not yet understand this (yet), it seems magical.

Rants and muses... or vice versa

Yes, it's rant time again... along with some musings. I realize that some people think I rant all the time but that's not true, I have to sleep now and then.

Let's start with a traffic rant. I had to go to the doctor's yesterday morning so I had to venture out into traffic. Since it is winter (as some of you may be aware) the traffic level here in Paradise is about double what it is in summer. That means it is twice as mindless and unfathomable. The "usual suspects" were out, of course. The Blockaders, the Drifters, Wandering Lane Changers, and so on. One I have not mentioned is the Disinterested Turner.

The Disinterested Turner is one who comes up to a traffic light controlled intersection on a red light with the intent to turn right on red (we assume) but sits there until the light changes to green. This driver is often on a cell phone (like way too many others) and oblivious to anyone behind him/her (again, like too many others). It's a breed of the Oblivions who are unaware of anyone else on the road. Naturally, I found myself behind one on this particular morning.

We here in Paradise have a lower share of traffic miscreants in the summer. We import most of them on a temporary basis during winter. If you recognize your self among the ones I have mentioned (and I am sure you will not, for obvious reasons) please stay Up Nawth next year.

I might not have had the traffic rant if I had not had a doctor's appointment which brings me to another irritation. Waiting on one's doctor. I had an 11:10 appointment. I was there at 10:55. I was ushered in at 11:10 to have my weight checked, placed in an examining room, and had my blood pressure checked. The results must have been good because it was another 50 minutes before I saw the doctor.

Can you imagine what would happen if you showed up 50 minutes late for your appointment? All I can say is that it is a good thing that they don't check my blood pressure at the time the doctor actually shows up.

Let's move on to musings. On the way to the doctor's, a couple of thoughts came to me. Someone on the radio said "let's not go down that route." We do not "go down [a] route", we "go down a road." The purpose of these little sayings is metaphor, a way to create a mental image to express an idea or concept. Though I have been known to mix the occasional metaphor, I do it purposely. To draw attention to it, to make the listener/reader think about what was said. Sure, that sometimes backfires because the listener/reader focuses on the perceived error in the metaphor rather than the concept behind it.

But this particular saying failed to do even that. What it did was trigger thoughts about direction and how we describe it phrases. Consider the following:

He lives up the street.
She lives down the street.

Without pointing in one direction or the other, which way you go after getting that information if you wanted to see her? Assuming the person you asked was not standing at the top of a hill.

I live in Florida, is New York up or down from me? It seems obvious to me but I have heard both directions used.

It boggles my mind. Speaking of which, try Googling "boggle" some time. The definition has to be specifically requested (as in boggle definition)

I am getting too literal, perhaps. Someone might ask "How are you?" and I will respond with "How am I at what?" or "In comparison to...?" I shouldn't complain... that is better than "How ya doon?"

Seeya tommarah!

Predictability and the Apocalypse

According to some, the world will come to an end in December of 2012. Must be true, there was even a movie about it and we know Hollywood would never make up something like that.

Great disasters will strike all around the world, billions will die, and there will be great destruction and ruin. The good news is we won't have to worry about that $14 Trillion in debt we are carrying.

You may have guessed I just sat through a few hours of apocalypse theories on one of the History channels. Very clever of you. Have you thought of doing a mind reading act?

My mother was a sweet woman if a bit naive. She believed in fortune tellers, psychics, and the like. Not in an extreme manner. She kept her belief in check in public most of the time. Every so often she would remark on how accurate some psychics seemed to be. My father would just roll his eyes and bite his tongue. Dad was a major league skeptic. (I have often wondered about those two and can only say they were proof of that adage "opposites attract.") I take after him in that regard.

Back in 1978, I was visiting my parents so I could be there for my mother's 60th birthday party. We were chatting one evening and she brought up the subject. My uncle Ronnie was there and was also being skeptical but much milder than Dad and I.. or maybe he was just more diplomatic about it... I got her to back off the subject by saying I would predict something... 3 train wrecks of note in the next 12 months. Turned out I was right only I underestimated the number (there were 4 in the U.S. in the following 12 months). I was merely operating on the fact that there are always train wrecks and I figured three was a conservative number.

The look of shock on my mother's face when I made the prediction was classic. Her son a psychic? Wow! She suspected I might be psycho but never psychic.

Let's get back to the end of the world, shall we? It may be important when making plans for retirement for some of you. I find these predictions of the Coming End very entertaining. I am drawn to these like a moth to a flame, like Huffington Post readers to an article about Sarah Palin, like I am to oatmeal cookies. I never fail to learn fascinating trivia from the programs.

Which is also why I get updates from the Earthquake Notification Service and also read articles like Yellowstone has bulged.

For instance, do you know who Terence McKenna was? How about the Web Bot? I had not heard of either of these before I saw one of these programs a couple of years ago. I had heard of Nostradamus and the Book of Revelations, of course, but there are so many more.

The biblical version of the End involves Satan, the False Prophet, and the Anti-Christ. Or, as I like to call them, the Unholy Trinity. I get hours of enjoyment from contemplating who one of the three might be. At least one might be my ex-wife. Not sure which one, though, except not the False Prophet.

Some folks believe we are entering End Times. And have been for the last twenty or more years. Such people have been around for hundreds of years. They have all been pretty sincere, I think, but have caused all kinds of problems.

Don't worry about the world coming to an end in 2012. It won't happen. Trust me on this. After all, I predicted those train wrecks in 1978, didn't I?

Besides, I think I would rather be surprised.

A review by a skeptic

I am going to violate a rule and speak about politics today. This is because of the State of the Union address last night. I have the need to comment on it. No, let me be honest, I have the urge to comment about it.

Politics has become theater in America. Politicians say things that are designed (through polling and focus group analysis) to please the most people, to get them to think that their wishes and desires are being addressed. The proper term is "vocal pandering", I think. It seems to me a great speech is now one that all (or most) constituents come away thinking things will be better.

The reality is that it is just talk. It means nothing. Last night, the president promised to do all the things that he should have been doing for the last two years. He is being applauded for these promises. He is being lauded for "moving toward the center," for "reaching out to the opposition." The reality may end up being different.

I recall that he promised to veto any bill that had "earmarks" in it. That seemed to impress most in the chamber and the "talking heads" blathering after the speech. Strange, but the first thing that came to my mind is "Why haven't you been doing that all along?" It was a rhetorical question, of course. I think I know the answer. And, if I am right, he will continue not to do it for the next couple of years (though there may be a token veto here or there).

Much has been made, and will continue to be made, on the need for unity in Washington. For working together to reach common goals. It always sounds good. But "the proof of the pudding is in the tasting." Which means I don't think it will happen. I am fairly sure I don't want it to happen. I am afraid of a united government. United governments are terrible things. Governments that are united can do as they please, the people no longer have any chance of control. I want the government to be fractured, to squabble, to truly represent the diversity of the country's politics. I want the government to fear the people. I want politicians to fear being tossed out of office. It is the only real power the people have. You lose it when you choose unity.

When the government is united, the people in Washington no longer represent you, they represent the government. We are a fractured people, we have many different ideas about what this country should do in the face of our financial troubles. Those need to be argued, to be examined, to be sifted through, so that the "bad" (or unworkable) ideas are rejected and the "good" ones are further examined, tested, and refined. In unity, the chances of "bad" ideas being adopted is much stronger.

There was one part of his speech that I liked. It was immediately misinterpreted by the pundits afterward, in my opinion.

The president spoke about a small drilling company that provided the equipment and expertise to help the Chilean miners escape. The President emphasized the smallness of the company and the value of its innovation in drilling methods. He ended that part by repeating what one of the people in that company said.... "We may be a small company... but we do great things." The pundits thought he was speaking of America.

In a sense, he was. But America is not a small country, it is a large one. Its great things come from small companies (as well as large) because it has allowed the individual freedom that fosters great things. In other words, it is the small companies, the individuals, which collectively make us what we are. It is not the General Motors, the General Electrics, the huge corporations that made us great, it was the efforts and dreams of those who started the small companies that became those huge corporations. To repeat that, government must not interfere much in the creation and growth of small companies. Let them compete, let the people decide which ideas are best and which aren't.

Trust the people. Let them lead the government, not the other way around.



For a somewhat different point of view, I suggest you read:

The Anticipation

... over at The View From Outside My Tiny Window.



And I thank you for your time.