Some Things I Have Come To Believe...

Over the years, I have developed some beliefs that are at odds with conventional wisdom. I am, apparently, a contrarian.

The Nazi war machine was overrated.
Hitler's military was not as fantastic as reported. It was formidable but not overwhelming. What it had in its favor was a willingness to use the standard street fight tactic of landing the first blow and following up. If a fight is inevitable, punch the opponent hard and don't let up, don't give him a chance to recover. Hitler did this in Poland and western Europe. He tried to do this in Russia, too, but ran into Napoleon's nemesis... the Russian winter.

Likewise, the power and competency of the Japanese military was also misunderstood.
They also used the blitzkrieg strategy to great effect against weaker (Korea and China) and unprepared (British and American) forces in Asia  and tried to do the same with the U.S. in the attack on Pearl Harbor. The U.S. recovered quickly and moved against Japan's military with what were then considered inferior equipment and inexperienced men (Chenault and the Flying Tigers used that inferior equipment pretty successfully against the Japanese, for example). The U.S. had another advantage; our industry was beyond the reach of both Japan and Germany. The tactic of blitz and follow-up was, therefore, not practical.

Conspiracy theories are 99.999% false. Especially ones which involve governments.
People cannot keep their mouths shut. And they tend to gather physical evidence to prove their participation in something, knowing that they will be met with skepticism. A conspiracy can work if the participants are few (a handful or so) but that's a rare event. Most conspiracy theories involve hundreds, sometimes thousands, of people that must either be incredibly stupid or incredibly fanatical.

Perhaps I am just cynical.